§ 823 — Report Required

(a) Not later than 1 year after December 23, 2022, and every 10 years thereafter, the Secretary, in coordination with the Administrator, shall submit to the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs and the Committee on Armed Services of the Senate and the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure and the Committee on Armed Services of the House of Representatives a report containing a detailed assessment, based on the input and coordination required under section 822 of this title, of global catastrophic and existential risk. (b) Each report required under subsection (a) shall include— (1) expert estimates of cumulative global catastrophic and existential risk in the next 30 years, including separate estimates for the likelihood of occurrence and potential consequences; (2) expert-informed analyses of the risk of the most concerning specific global catastrophic and existential threats, including separate estimates, where reasonably feasible and credible, of each threat for its likelihood of occurrence and its potential consequences, as well as associated uncertainties; (3) a comprehensive list of potential catastrophic or existential threats, including even those that may have very low likelihood; (4) technical assessments and lay explanations of the analyzed global catastrophic and existential risks, including their qualitative character and key factors affecting their likelihood of occurrence and potential consequences; (5) an explanation of any factors that limit the ability of the Secretary to assess the risk both cumulatively and for particular threats, and how those limitations may be overcome through future research or with additional resources, programs, or authorities; (6) a forecast of if and why global catastrophic and existential risk is likely to increase or decrease significantly in the next 10 years, both qualitatively and quantitatively, as well as a description of associated uncertainties; (7) proposals for how the Federal Government may more adequately assess global catastrophic and existential risk on an ongoing basis in future years; (8) recommendations for legislative actions, as appropriate, to support the evaluation and assessment of global catastrophic and existential risk; and (9) other matters deemed appropriate by the Secretary, in coordination with the Administrator, and based on the input and coordination required under section 822 of this title. (c) In producing the report required under subsection (a), the Secretary shall— (1) regularly consult with experts on severe global pandemics, nuclear war, asteroid and comet impacts, supervolcanoes, sudden and severe changes to the climate, and intentional or accidental threats arising from the use and development of emerging technologies; and (2) share information gained through the consultation required under paragraph (1) with relevant Federal partners listed in section 822(b) of this title.